Caesars Sportsbook released their OVER/UNDER win totals for the 2020 NFL season, and the 49ers are listed at 10.5 wins, tied for the third-highest number among all NFL teams.
The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens top the list at OVER/UNDER 12 wins, and the Saints are tied with the 49ers at 10.5.
Caesars has the 49ers listed at +700 odds ($100 bet wins $700) to win the Super Bowl, +350 to win the NFC and +100 to win the NFC West.
They are listed at -325 ($325 bet wins $100) to make the playoffs and +265 to miss the playoffs.
So what should we make of these odds? Will the 49ers succumb to the “losing the Super Bowl hangover?”
Although it’s a common talking point, this hasn’t been a consistent trend as of late.
Nine of the last 11 teams to lose the Super Bowl have made the playoffs the following season, including the 2012-13 49ers. The only exceptions were last season’s Los Angeles Rams and the 2016-17 Carolina Panthers.
When you just look at win totals for those Super Bowl losers in the following season, five have gone OVER, four have gone UNDER and two have PUSHED, per Sports Odds History.
When analyzing the 49ers’ OVER/UNDER, it’s critical to examine their schedule.
This season, the 49ers will play the NFC East, the AFC East, the Saints, Packers and the standard six divisional games against the NFC West.
The 49ers travel to New Orleans and host Green Bay, the reigning NFC South and NFC North champs, respectively. They played both teams in the same venues last season and came away 2-0.
In the NFC East, they host Washington and the Philadelphia Eagles, and will go on the road to play the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. The four teams have a projected combined win total of 29, tied with the AFC South for the lowest total amongst all divisions.
In the AFC East, they host the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, and will go on the road to play the New England Patriots and New York Jets.
Fortunately for San Francisco, they will play the AFC East the first year Tom Brady won’t be in the division. The Patriots have a win total of 8.5, their lowest since 2003.
Additionally, the Jets, Dolphins and Bills have three combined playoff appearances since 2011.
So, the oddsmakers consider the AFC East and NFC East as two of the weaker divisions this season in football, which bodes well for 49ers fans and bettors alike.
The win total bet should come down to how well they perform in the division. Caesars projects the NFC West to win a combined 36 games, the most out of any division. Essentially, they are playing in the hardest division in football.
Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers went 5-1 against the NFC West last season. If you believe they can replicate this success inside the division, the OVER is the way to go.